For the most part, the stock market rally rolled on in July, shrugging off new controversies and setbacks in the Trump administration and the ongoing lack of any real substantive economic progress. Words like “modest” and “moderate” continued to dominate expert assessments of the economy—the same terms Fed Chairman Janet Yellen used in June to justify raising short-term interest rates for the second time this year.

The markets remained high in April but were also largely disconnected from economic reality. Reported corporate earnings reflected an annualized growth rate of just 0.7 percent for the first quarter of 2017.* That’s down from 2.1 percent growth in the fourth quarter of 2016, and even though both of those are positive numbers, neither is anywhere near 4 percent. Annual GDP growth of 4 percent is what Donald Trump has promised if his tax plan and other economic policies are approved—and Wall Street remains irrationally optimistic that he can, and will, deliver.

Apart from technology, equities cooled off a bit in March as reality started to set in: the Trump administration may have a tough time getting their agenda approved within their own party—let alone when dealing with the Democrats. The week of March 27 started with all the markets down and the Dow Jones Industrial Average culminating its eighth straight day of losses—its longest losing streak since 2011.* The slide was primarily prompted by what happened on Capitol Hill the previous Friday when Trump’s team failed to push its Obamacare reform bill through Congress mainly due to opposition from Republicans. The debacle clearly dampened the optimistic mood that had reigned on Wall Street since Trump’s election.

Throughout January and February, Donald Trump continued to talk up spending and talk down taxes, and the equity market loved it! The markets have taken Trump at his word, and all of this “expected” fiscal spending and investment in economic growth has been driving the markets to record highs. The caveat is simply: how will he pay for it?