October marked the return of major some major volatility to the stock market for the first time since late Spring. Over two dramatic days, on October 10th & 11th, the Dow shed over 1,300 points, while both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq suffered similar losses.* Volatility continued over the next several weeks, and by October 26th the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 9% from its record high for the year, while both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 were down more than 10% and officially in correction territory.**

September may have marked the start of fall, but for the financial markets it was a month in which everything seemed to rise. On September 20th, the Dow Jones Industrial Average finally managed to surpass the peak it hit in January and nudged all the way to a new record of 26,743 one day later before leveling off again. On September 18th, the yield on the 10-year Treasury rate surpassed 3 percent for the first time since May, making it to 3.10 percent before dropping slightly again.* Finally, on September 26th, the Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates for the third time this year, to a range of 2-to-2.25 percent. It also reaffirmed its plan for one more rate hike in December, and as many as three more in 2019.**

One could argue the stock market had a relatively good month in July, but that’s only because the bar for the year has been set pretty low. After plunging to 24,117 on June 27, the Dow Jones Industrial Average clawed its way back up to a high of 25,527 by July 26 before leveling off again. In the meantime, volatility remained high as Wall Street continued to closely watch the impacts of Donald Trump’s trade policies and the Federal Reserve’s moves around interest rates.

One could argue the stock market had a relatively good month in July, but that’s only because the bar for the year has been set pretty low. After plunging to 24,117 on June 27, the Dow Jones Industrial Average clawed its way back up to a high of 25,527 by July 26 before leveling off again. In the meantime, volatility remained high as Wall Street continued to closely watch the impacts of Donald Trump’s trade policies and the Federal Reserve’s moves around interest rates.

The last month of the second quarter played out very much like the preceding four months: with record volatility in the overvalued stock market, long-term interest rates holding at their resistance level, inflation still below 2 percent, and the Fed pretending not to notice any of it. The Dow Jones Industrial Average opened June at 24,635 and finished nearly 400 points down from that, but in between, it climbed nearly 700 points higher and fell more than 500 points lower.1 The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were equally volatile, thanks mainly to escalating concerns over Donald Trump’s trade policies and the threat of a full-blown trade war.